Recent calculations from NASA suggest that an asteroid previously thought to have a chance of hitting Earth could actually collide with the Moon. The probability of this space rock hitting Earth in 2032 has increased from around 1% to 2.3%, according to NASA’s estimates, with the chance of impacting the Moon pegged at 0.3%. Scientists are concerned that some fragments may break off from this collision and fall to Earth.

New calculations propose that a large asteroid previously believed to have an increasing chance of hitting Earth might in fact miss our planet and collide with the Moon instead. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (Cneos) at NASA examined the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 and found that the likelihood of it colliding with the planet in 2032 has risen from about 1% to 2.3%. According to new calculations by Arizona University astronomer David Rankin, the chance of the 90-meter asteroid hitting the Moon is approximately 0.3%.

MOON FRAGMENTS COULD BE SCATTERED INTO SPACE The Moon lacks an atmosphere like Earth’s that would slow down asteroids, so the impact of a large space rock could create a crater hundreds of meters wide, scattering Moon fragments into space. Scientists suspect that some fragments could fall to Earth. There are still uncertainties about the orbit of the asteroid first observed on December 27th last year.

CITY-KILLER ASTEROIDS The American space agency stated, “Some objects that have previously appeared on the list of risks have eventually been removed as more data was collected.” Space agencies worldwide are exploring ways to counter the threat posed by dangerous “city-killer” asteroids. Some experimental methods include sending spacecraft to the asteroids or diverting them from their paths with nuclear explosions.