The first stage of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel has concluded without any clear progress towards the second stage. Hamas reported that there have been no discussions with them regarding the second stage of the ceasefire so far. Israel, on the other hand, announced that a plan has been put forward by US President Donald Trump’s Special Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff. This plan involves a temporary ceasefire during the month of Ramadan and the Jewish Feast of Unleavened Bread (Passover) in the Gaza Strip. What scenarios are on the table after the first stage? What factors will influence these scenarios?

According to the agreement reached between Hamas and Israel on the ceasefire and prisoner exchange, negotiations for the second stage, supposed to begin on February 3rd, did not initiate before the first stage of the agreement ended.

The lack of negotiations for the second stage opens the door to many possible scenarios, such as Israel continuing its aggression in the Gaza Strip, increased pressure from Israel resulting in the current stage persisting, and the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement.

ISRAEL APPROVES EXTENSION OF CEASEFIRE DURING RAMADAN

An announcement from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office stated that a security meeting was held under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the participation of Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, high-ranking military commanders, and negotiation teams. The announcement highlighted that the proposed ceasefire plan involves the release of half of the Israeli captives in Gaza either dead or alive on the first day of the ceasefire. It also mentioned that if a permanent ceasefire is achieved, the other half of captives in Gaza will be set free. The announcement revealed that Witkoff’s plan aims at extending the ceasefire due to the present conditions not allowing for a final agreement to end the war and requiring more time for negotiations towards a long-term ceasefire. Furthermore, the announcement indicated that if negotiations do not progress, Israel reserves the right to resume hostilities 42 days later but accepted the US proposal to rescue captives, whereas Hamas has not agreed to it yet. Additionally, it was emphasized that if Hamas changes its stance and accepts the Witkoff plan, Israel will immediately commence negotiations on the plan’s details. Regarding Israel’s announcement, there has not been a statement from intermediaries Egypt and Qatar or Witkoff. SECOND STAGE NEGOTIATIONS Israel aims to extend the first phase of the prisoner exchange agreement by releasing as many Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip without offering any reciprocation. Hamas rejected this by demanding Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire agreement and urged intermediaries to immediately start negotiations for the second stage, which includes Israel withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor. Hamas insists on progressing with the negotiations for the second stage, but no advancements have been made due to this stance. During the discussions in Cairo, Hamas reported rejecting the formula to extend the agreement, which would require Hamas to continue releasing Israeli captives it holds in return for only allowing humanitarian aid to Gaza to continue and permitting the release of some Palestinian captives.

“HAMAS IS READY FOR THIS”

Hamas Spokesperson Hazim Kasim highlighted that there are efforts by intermediaries to ensure Israel sticks to the implementation of the second stage. Kasim emphasized that Hamas is committed to the agreement in every stage of the process. He expressed that Hamas is prepared to start negotiations for the second stage at a technical, professional, and political level. Referring to Israel’s request to extend the first stage, Kasim stated that Tel Aviv desires to retrieve its captives from Gaza without promising to stop the war and withdraw from the Gaza Strip, which is contrary to the agreement’s provisions, therefore, Hamas rejected it. SCENARIOS AFTER THE FIRST STAGE Palestinian analyst and writer Ibrahim el-Medhun discussed four scenarios that could unfold following the first stage of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The first scenario involves a return to the old state of war and destruction under the direct involvement of the US, but Medhun emphasized the impossibility of this scenario given the prevailing regional and international balance of powers. The second scenario focuses on maintaining the current status quo without a prisoner exchange or taking new measures without Israel withdrawing from Gaza and lifting the blockade among other demands posed by Hamas, making it difficult for this scenario to become a reality as Hamas rejected Israel’s request for an unconditional prisoner exchange. Medhun pointed out that this scenario is based on Israel’s policy of negotiating with fire by controlling aid efforts and escalating assassinations without engaging in extensive warfare. The third and most likely scenario, according to Medhun, is the continuation of the current process under increased Israeli pressure, where Israel uses aid as a leverage, monitors and controls aid distribution, sends aircraft for airstrikes, maybe carries out some limited ground incursions, aims to create a continuous state of tension without declaring a comprehensive war. Medhun described the fourth scenario as a comprehensive and rapid agreement to end the conflict fundamentally, envisioning a full withdrawal from Gaza, lifting the blockade, and releasing all prisoners from both sides. FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROCESS Medhun identified several factors influencing the future course of the agreement. The first factor is the Israeli element, proposed as an obstacle to achieving comprehensive political solutions due to the ongoing escalation of extreme elements within Israel, complicating the chances of reaching comprehensive political resolutions. The second factor is the Palestinian element, highlighting that Hamas and the resistance are disciplined and ready to face all possibilities. Medhun stated that Hamas is not pursuing war but working towards maintaining calm and is ready to react strongly in case of escalation. He considered the position of the US as another factor, indicating that any future endeavor, particularly involving changes in conditions like excluding Hamas from the political scene, would necessitate a reassessment of the conditions as comprehensive solutions are not feasible without the active participation of resistance movements. Medhun also highlighted the Arab factor, explaining that during a period where Arab countries are interested in alleviating the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and preventing the conflict from spreading in the region, Egypt plays a fundamental role in providing regional tranquility. CEASEFIRE AFTER 15 MONTHS The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel came into effect on January 19 after more than 15 months of conflict in Gaza. In exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons, Hamas released 25 Israeli hostages and returned the lifeless bodies of 8 hostages to Israel. The second stage of the ceasefire mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt was expected to commence today.