The debate continues on whether the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has come to an end, with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stating that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin has entered a downtrend.

According to Ju, the increasing interest in Bitcoin ETFs has altered traditional on-chain liquidity signals, signaling the start of a new phase in market dynamics.

HOW DO ETFs AFFECT ON-CHAIN DATA? CryptoQuant’s CEO emphasized that traditional retail investor activity is not clearly visible in on-chain transactions because many investors participate in the crypto market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead of direct transactions. Ju pointed out that approximately 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors, a trend also observed by Binance analysts towards the end of 2024. The preference of retail investors for Bitcoin ETFs leads to new liquidity entering the market not being fully reflected in on-chain data. While the low values of metrics like realized market value do not necessarily mean a decrease in demand for Bitcoin, it indicates a need for caution when evaluating market movements using traditional on-chain metrics.

HAS BITCOIN ENTERED A BEAR MARKET? Ki Young Ju recently shared that all on-chain liquidity signals pointing to Bitcoin entering a bear market are present. According to him, Bitcoin could experience a prolonged market correction phase lasting between 6 to 12 months. Ju noted that key indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) are on a downward trend. These metrics suggest that investors are taking profits, supporting the notion of the market entering a correction phase. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin price experienced a 0.35% decrease, dropping from $84,500 to $83,000. This decline aligns with short-term investors seeking profits in recent times. Particularly, increased selling pressure from institutional investors and derivatives markets negatively affect Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

HOW ARE ANALYSTS EVALUATING BITCOIN’S FUTURE? Financial analyst Peter Schiff mentioned that Bitcoin has a high correlation with NASDAQ and that a possible downturn in traditional markets could adversely affect Bitcoin’s price. Schiff predicts a potential drop to $65,000 with a 24% decrease if the market continues to fall. In a worst-case scenario, he claims Bitcoin could drop to $20,000 if the market correction deepens. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone expressed concern that Bitcoin and the general crypto market are overheating while gold prices rise. McGlone predicts that if economic conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin could drop to $10,000. However, some market experts argue that with increased Bitcoin ETF purchases, the market could gain liquidity and prices could stabilize.

MINERS AND LIQUIDITY ISSUE Another significant indicator that the Bitcoin bull cycle may have ended is the activity of miners. Recent data reveals that Bitcoin miners selling BTC worth $27 million in total have caused a significant cash outflow in the market. This indicates that miners are selling to cover their costs, creating additional selling pressure on the market in the process. Moreover, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2026 could trigger a new wave of volatility in the market. While past halving events have generally had a positive impact by reducing Bitcoin’s supply, they also caused short-term volatility. While some see this as a long-term investment opportunity, some analysts believe that increasing mining costs will continue to exert pressure on the market.

WHAT WILL BE BITCOIN’S NEXT MOVE? If current market trends persist, it appears challenging for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the coming months. As the crypto market increasingly shifts towards ETFs, traditional on-chain indicators may not fully reflect the market dynamics. Leading analysts emphasize that global macroeconomic conditions will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s future. If the demand for ETFs continues, Bitcoin’s long-term potential can be preserved. However, in a period where on-chain indicators do not fully reflect investor interest, investors should be prepared for a possible long-term market correction.