Expectations of investors in the cryptocurrency market are increasingly being priced in through prediction platforms. The blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket has shared the most notable possibilities for 2025 with investors. From Bitcoin price forecasts to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a Bitcoin reserve, many topics are being priced based on investors’ expectations. While uncertainty and speculation always play a significant role in the crypto market, prediction markets are gaining more interest. Polymarket, a crypto-supported betting platform, allows investors to invest based on probabilities by pricing their expectations for future events. Having made successful predictions in the past regarding the U.S. elections and various market movements, the platform has evaluated possibilities that are causing a buzz in the crypto world for 2025. Let’s examine the most striking predictions, from Bitcoin price to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a BTC reserve.

WHAT LEVEL WILL BITCOIN REACH IN 2025?
There is a significant variability observed in predictions regarding Bitcoin’s price. Investors price in a 46% probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the year’s end. However, this figure decreases as more ambitious levels are reached:
27% probability of reaching $150,000
12% probability of reaching $250,000
4% probability of reaching $1 million
These probabilities have significantly changed, especially with the exit of institutional investors from the markets and decreased interest in Bitcoin ETFs. On January 20th, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 was priced at 62%. However, this rate experienced a sharp decline in the later months of the year. On the other hand, investors view a drop in Bitcoin to $75,000 as the most likely scenario. Those trading on Polymarket believe this scenario has a 34% chance of occurring.

TRUMP’S PLAN TO CREATE A BITCOIN RESERVE WITHIN HIS FIRST 100 DAYS
Donald Trump’s frequent expression of interest in Bitcoin during his election campaign had excited investors. Immediately after his election victory, Polymarket data showed a 60% probability of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. within his first 100 days in office. However, this probability has fallen to 29% in recent weeks. The main reason for this decline is the uncertainty about whether Congressional approval would be needed despite the plan being officially announced. Nonetheless, by the end of the year, the likelihood of the U.S. creating a Bitcoin reserve is priced at 75%. This decision, seen as a critical move for the crypto market, could have a significant impact on the markets due to its timing and scope.

WILL ALTCOIN ETFs BE APPROVED BY 2025?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 but continues to be cautious regarding altcoin ETFs. Investors are confident that a series of altcoin ETFs will be approved within 2025. Approval odds for altcoin ETFs on Polymarket are as follows:
89% probability of Solana (SOL) ETF approval
77% probability of XRP ETF approval
72% probability of Litecoin (LTC) ETF approval
69% probability of Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) ETF approval
These odds reflect the increasing interest of investors in the altcoin market and potential developments on the regulatory side. Solana’s ETF stands out as the product most likely to be approved.

UNLIKELY YET INTRIGUING PREDICTIONS
There are some low-probability but interesting scenarios priced on Polymarket. Some unusual crypto predictions being priced on the platform include:
20% probability of Ethereum (ETH) reaching its all-time high in 2025
12% probability of MicroStrategy declaring bankruptcy in 2025
6% probability of Amazon creating a Bitcoin reserve by June
2% probability of Solana (SOL) surpassing Ethereum (ETH) in market value
7% probability of Bybit going bankrupt in 2025
Considering the unpredictable events that have occurred in the crypto world in the past, it is possible for some low-probability events to unexpectedly take place.

WHAT DO POLYMARKET PREDICTIONS TELL THE MARKET?
Data on Polymarket is considered an important indicator since it directly reflects investors’ market expectations. The exits of Bitcoin ETFs, decreased interest from institutional investors, and uncertainties regarding altcoin ETFs significantly impact the price predictions for 2025. On the other hand, issues like the U.S. government creating a Bitcoin reserve, approval of Solana ETFs, and the overall direction of the market are among the events investors will largely price in over the coming months. While nothing is certain in the crypto world, the rates priced on Polymarket continue to be an important source of information for observing the market’s general expectations.