Bitcoin Approaches $90,000 Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the $90,000 level as it continues its upward trend, with developments in the options market increasing price volatility. The three-month options closing scheduled for Friday could trigger volatility due to market makers’ positions. Bitcoin (BTC) approaching the $90,000 level, developments in the options market could amplify price volatility. The three-month options closing on Friday, especially due to market makers’ positions, may pave the way for price movements. Market makers, also known as dealers or MM’s, are responsible for providing liquidity in the options market. They try to maintain a neutral position by being on the other side of trades. To achieve this, they balance their positions in the spot and futures markets through hedging operations. Their profits generally come from the difference between the buying and selling prices. Increased Volatility Risk around $90,000 According to Deribit bitcoin option data provided by Amberdata, market makers carry a “short gamma” position at the $90,000 level. A short gamma position means market makers will have to buy when prices rise and sell when they fall, which could increase market volatility. Griffin Ardern, the lead writer at BloFin Academy and president of BloFin Research and Options, stated to CoinDesk that negative gamma could continue to affect the market even after the maturity, saying, “Market makers’ hedging behavior may further enhance price fluctuations.” However, Ardern believes that in the current market conditions, upward price movement seems more likely. Gamma refers to a metric that measures the sensitivity of option prices to changes in the underlying asset price. Holding a short gamma position makes market makers more vulnerable to volatility. During periods of high volatility, this can lead to financial losses. Therefore, when market makers are in a short gamma position, they increase their trading activities in parallel with market movements. Past Positions of Market Makers and Current Situation Market makers follow the opposite strategy when in a long gamma position. For example, towards the end of last year, market makers were in long gamma positions at the $90,000 and $100,000 levels. This contributed to the price consolidating within this range. Charts display gamma changes at different price levels throughout the option maturity dates. It is estimated that after the three-month options settlement scheduled for Friday, the $90,000 level will continue to have the most negative delta. This suggests that market makers’ hedging behavior may continue to increase volatility. According to Ardern, BTC’s dealer gamma profile at the end of Friday’s maturity is similar to that of gold-backed PAXG token. “After removing the impact of expiring options, PAXG has a Gamma Exposure (GEX) distribution similar to BTC. The price finds support after a significant drop and encounters resistance during strong surges,” Ardern said. As the Bitcoin price approaches $90,000, the balance in the options market may increase price volatility. The hedging strategies of market makers and the impact of options closures indicate that BTC may experience a volatile trend in the coming days.