Central Bank eyes the meeting date for the second interest rate decision! CBRT March 2025 interest rate expectations

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey held its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025 in January. Following the decision, the one-week repo auction interest rate was reduced by 250 basis points to 45.00 percent levels. Markets are following the CBRT’s interest rate decision schedule for March. Throughout 2025, the Central Bank will hold 8 meetings to announce its interest rate decision. The Central Bank will share its second interest rate decision of the year with the markets in March. The interest rate was announced as 45.00 percent in the decision made in January. According to the CBRT MPC meeting schedule, the last meeting of the year will be held on December 11. According to the Central Bank’s February survey, the one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for three months ahead was 40.00 percent.The CBRT Monetary Policy Committee did not convene in February according to the meeting schedule, and the second interest rate decision of the year will be announced to the markets after the meeting scheduled for March 6 at 14:00. According to the CBRT’s February participant survey, while the end-of-year consumer inflation (CPI) expectation in the previous survey period was 27.05 percent, it increased to 28.30 percent in this survey period. The 12-month ahead CPI expectation was 25.38 percent in the previous survey period, and it decreased to 25.26 percent in this survey period. In the February 2025 survey period, based on participants’ probability forecasts for 12 months ahead, the CPI is expected to increase by an average of 22.80 percent with a probability of between 21.00-23.99 percent in 41.11 percent probability between 24.00-26.99 percent, and in 21.46 percent probability between 27.00-29.99 percent range. Participants’ end-of-month overnight interest rate expectation was 45.00 percent in the previous survey period, and it decreased to 44.79 percent in this survey period. March 6, 2025 April 17, 2025 June 19, 2025 July 24, 2025 September 11, 2025 October 23, 2025 December 11, 2025