The United States space agency NASA has issued a warning about the increased likelihood of an asteroid impacting our planet that could eradicate densely populated cities. The asteroid named 2024 YR4 has seen its chances of impacting Earth rise from 1.3% to 2.3%. Estimated to have a diameter of up to 90 meters, this asteroid could cause significant damage if it were to collide with Earth.

NASA has once again warned about the likelihood of an asteroid of sufficient size to eradicate densely populated cities impacting Earth.

According to the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) of the US space agency, the probability of the 2024 YR4 asteroid colliding with our planet has risen to 2.3%.

This means that while the asteroid passes closest to Earth on December 2, 2032, the chances of impact are 43 in 1.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially detected in late December by astronomers at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile, funded by NASA.

Since then, it has risen to the top of both NASA’s and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) lists of collision risks as the probability of impact continues to increase.

IMPACT PROBABILITY ON THE RISE

Just a week ago, NASA considered the possibility of this asteroid impacting Earth to be only 1.3%.

BIGGEST THREAT TO THE PLANET

Estimated to have an original diameter of up to 90 meters, roughly the size of the Statue of Liberty, this asteroid could cause serious damage if it collides with Earth.

While the likelihood of the 2024 YR4 impacting Earth is low, it currently stands as the biggest known threat to our planet.

None of the other large asteroids currently known have a probability of impact higher than 1%.

ASTEROID THAT ERADICATED 2,000 SQUARE KILOMETERS OF FOREST IN 1908

Based on brightness observations, the diameter of the 2024 YR4 ranges from 40 to 90 meters.

This places it at a similar size with the Tunguska asteroid that destroyed a 2,150-square-kilometer forest in Siberia in 1908, causing an explosion equivalent to 30 megatons of TNT.

Astronomers are hoping that the 2024 YR4 will follow a similar trajectory and that new observations will clarify its path.

“OBJECTS THAT BEGIN AS THREATS END UP NOT BEING ONES”

Dr. Shyam Balaji from King’s College London said, “As additional observation data is collected, it is expected that the likelihood of impact will decrease. Historically, objects initially marked as risky tend to no longer pose a threat over time, as actively shown by astronomers at NASA and ESA closely monitoring the orbit of 2024 YR4.”

With advancements in technologies detecting asteroids, it is likely that more previously undetected celestial objects with a low probability of impact will be found more frequently.

This most probably means that the 2024 YR4 will safely pass by Earth.

However, the issue is that the asteroid is currently 43 million kilometers away from Earth, moving away at a speed of 46,800 kilometers per hour.

ESA TO OBSERVE WITH LARGER TELESCOPES

ESA plans to collect more data with increasingly powerful telescopes, ultimately intending to observe it using the Very Large Telescope at the European Southern Observatory in Chile.

This is crucial because when the asteroid becomes visible again, Earth will have only four years to decide whether to intervene with it.

If a decision to alter the asteroid’s orbit is made, the most likely option would be to collide a satellite with it using a kinetic impact method.

In 2022, NASA’s DART mission showed that colliding a satellite with a large asteroid could significantly change its orbit.