Global markets are awaiting an intense week. Investors will closely monitor US inflation data. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s presentation to the House of Representatives will be carefully watched. While the fight against inflation continues worldwide, recession concerns remain on the agenda. During this process, any steps by US President Trump that could stoke global trade wars have an impact on market direction. Comments on the China-based artificial intelligence model DeepSeek performing at high levels with lower costs raise doubts about US dominance in the technology sector, expecting a global power struggle in this field. Trump’s readiness to apply tariffs to other major US trading partners after China could revive inflationary pressures in the country and overshadow gains made by the Federal Reserve in combating inflation so far. Concerns persist about the discordance between Trump’s policies and future steps by the Fed, as next week’s US inflation data release and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s presentation to the House Financial Services Committee will be closely watched by investors. EYES ARE ON INFLATION US inflation figures will be released on Wednesday, February 12th at 16:30. Expectations for headline inflation point to 2.9%. Monthly inflation is expected to increase by 0.3%. In December, monthly inflation rose by 0.4% and annually by 2.9%. TARIFF WARNING FROM FED OFFICIALS Statements from Fed officials are also being closely monitored. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed his openness to more interest rate cuts this year but noted the uncertainty surrounding the effects of President Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and regulations. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that an economy with strong growth, declining inflation, and full employment would allow the Fed to continue interest rate cuts, but the uncertainty about the effects of tariffs and other policy changes requires a slower approach. Boston Fed President Susan Collins mentioned that the impact of tariffs on prices is expected. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reported that their business connections plan to pass on the increased costs due to tariffs to prices. SLOWING JOB GROWTH On the macroeconomic data side, non-farm payroll data, which is important for the course of the Fed’s monetary policy, indicated that although job growth slowed in January, the labor market remained strong. Non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000 in the US in January, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4%. Average hourly earnings, closely watched by the Fed, increased by 0.5% in January, exceeding expectations.