Russia is said to be supplying gas and oil to Syria in order to maintain its military presence in the country while continuing to support Assad. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, it is alleged that Russia has been supplying gas and oil to Syria to sustain its military presence. According to The Moscow Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country granted asylum to Assad when he fled, seeks to gain the loyalty of the new regime led by Ahmed Shaar in Syria and keep the Assad issue off the table. Three sources quoted in the report indicated that the Kremlin is taking advantage of the energy crisis in the country to sustain its military bases in Syria by supplying gas and oil starting in February. Speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, sources knowledgeable about Kremlin’s foreign policy said that these shipments were initiated upon Putin’s instructions and efforts were made to keep them secret. A source from Russia’s oil and gas sector stated in an interview with the newspaper, “Our support for the Syrian people, whom we see as our friends, truly continues; we were instructed to proceed quietly.”

A diplomat who spoke to the newspaper stated that the sudden change of leadership in Syria left Russia without allies on the ground. The diplomat continued, saying, “All of our friends in Syria changed sides on the day Assad fled and the opposition arrived, even on social media. This created huge problems for our policies in Syria and in the Middle East.” Another diplomat described how Russia granting asylum to Assad and his family worsened its relationship with the new Syrian administration and triggered negative feelings among the Syrian people. The diplomat expressed, “This was another nail in the coffin of our friendship with the Syrian people; however, we had no other choice.”

According to information provided by a Russian diplomat close to the Kremlin, Moscow made it clear to the Syrian government that it would not hand over Assad even if the issue was raised during negotiations. The diplomat stated, “Our leader’s approach is that we should not give up on ourselves no matter what.” Another diplomat, acknowledging that Assad has many enemies in the Middle East, warned that relinquishing him would tarnish Putin’s authority and be seen as a betrayal of their fundamental principles, leading to the new Syrian administration breaking him apart. An analyst with Kremlin ties highlighted that Russia’s future influence in the region largely depends on its relations with Turkey, the US, and Israel. The expert expressed dissatisfaction over Israel’s complete occupation of the Golan Heights and its attacks on defense infrastructure in Syria. “We made a lot of mistakes; everyone here in the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry knows that. However, we must show optimism in public. We now need to rebuild our relationships from scratch.”

According to experts from the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Club, for Russia to regain its influence in Syria, it needs to demonstrate to the new Syrian government that its policy of supporting the country’s state and sovereignty, fighting terrorism, rejecting new colonialism, and seeking a legal solution to conflicts is consistent. Russia has a military presence at the Hmeimim air base in Jableh, Latakia, and the naval base in Tartus, Syria. The fate of these bases had raised questions after the change of leadership in Syria. Despite the initial prevailing pessimism, The Moscow Times pointed out that Russian forces continued to hold onto these two bases.

Referring to a phone call between Putin and Shaar, a Russian government official highlighted that the supply of energy resources was one of the most important issues discussed and that the order to start supply shipments was given after the telephone conversation between the Russian leader and Shaar. With the halt in Iran’s oil supplies, a fuel crisis emerged in Syria in December 2024. It was reported that the Kremlin swiftly took action to exploit the economic instability in Syria and that numerous fuel tankers departed from Russia and reached Syria in the past month. According to TankerTrackers.com data, a ship named “Sakina” under the Barbados flag docked at a port in Syria on March 25, delivering around 100,000 tons of oil. It was reported in the local media that prior to this, another Barbados-flagged ship named Aquatica reached the port of Baniyas. Both ships, subject to Western sanctions, reportedly loaded oil from the Murmansk region of Russia in February and delivered 100 tons of oil to Syria. The report indicated that other ships and shipments followed suit.