#Ekonomi

Global Markets Continue to Feel the Inflation Echo

Following inflation data in the US that surpassed expectations and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, global markets experienced a mixed course. Investors are set to monitor US producer prices today. In global markets, a mixed trajectory has been observed following inflation data in the US that exceed expectations and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with attention now turning to the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released in the US today. Indicating an acceleration in price increases in the US, the data strengthens forecasts that the Fed will maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, making asset pricing more challenging. All Eyes on US Producer Prices The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the country rose above expectations in both monthly and annual terms in January with a 0.5% and 3% increase, respectively. The CPI recorded its fastest monthly increase since August 2023, and its highest annual inflation rate since July 2024, excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was also reported above expectations at 0.4% monthly and 3.3% annually. Analysts noted that the inflation data exceeding expectations supported concerns about possible disruptions to the Fed’s inflation-fighting process due to US President Donald Trump’s policies. Signals from the producer inflation data to be released today are said to have an impact on the direction of the markets. Powell: We Haven’t Reached the Target Yet Additionally, during his second day of testimony in Congress, Fed Chairman Powell expressed that they are close to the inflation target but have not yet reached it, noting that the reported inflation data reflected the same sentiment. When asked about US President Donald Trump’s statement calling for interest rate cuts, Powell emphasized that decisions would be made based on what is happening in the economy. Powell stated that they want to keep monetary policy restrictive for now. He mentioned that due to tariffs, there might be a need to do something about the policy interest rate, but they cannot know how this would pan out until they see the actual policies in effect. While statements from Fed officials are being followed closely, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as “sobering.” Goolsbee expressed that if data like today’s is seen for a few more months, it would mean that the Fed’s work is not done yet. Trump’s Tariffs Awaited White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt announced that US President Donald Trump might disclose reciprocity-based tariffs before his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today. Following these developments, expectations are highlighted in the pricing in the currency markets that the Fed will go for the first rate cut of the year in July. Dollar and Oil Retreat, Gold Close to Record After the inflation data, the 10-year Treasury bond yield in the US reached 4.66% from 4.61% it is currently balanced. The dollar index stands at 107.6 with a 0.3% decrease. Gold’s ounce price closed at $2,901 yesterday, trading at $2,922 with a 0.7% increase today. The barrel price of Brent crude is sold at $74.3, 0.8% lower than the previous closing. Yesterday at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.27%, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.50%, while the Nasdaq index remained flat. Index futures in the US started the new day with a positive trend.

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