The global oil supply rose by approximately 240 thousand barrels per day in February, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil supply increased by around 240 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels. The IEA’s report on the oil market for February indicated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) crude oil supply increased by about 40 thousand barrels per day last month, reaching 27 million 460 thousand barrels. During this period, OPEC’s production from sources other than crude oil reached a daily record level of 5 million 570 thousand barrels. Consequently, OPEC’s total oil supply was 33 million 30 thousand barrels per day last month, approximately 50 thousand barrels higher than the previous month. The daily oil production of non-OPEC countries increased by around 190 thousand barrels during this period, reaching 70 million 220 thousand barrels. Therefore, the global oil supply increased by approximately 240 thousand barrels per day in February compared to the previous month, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels. Production Increase Came from the OPEC+ Group The report stated that the majority of the increase in the global oil supply came from the OPEC and some non-OPEC countries forming the OPEC+ group. Kazakhstan made record production levels due to increased production at the Tengiz field, while Iran and Venezuela increased their production flow before tighter sanctions. During this period, the OPEC+ group’s crude oil production reached the highest level in the last 6 months with a daily increase of 210 thousand barrels, reaching 41 million 780 thousand barrels. When the group’s daily 8 million 270 thousand barrels of crude oil from other non-conventional sources is added, the total oil supply increased to approximately 50 million 50 thousand barrels per day. Last month, non-OPEC+ production showed a slight increase, reaching 53 million 200 thousand barrels per day with an increase of 20 thousand barrels.

REVISION TO OIL ESTIMATES The global oil demand is expected to reach approximately 103 million 910 thousand barrels per day this year, with an increase of about 1 million 30 thousand barrels per day. In the previous month’s report, the IEA had forecasted an increase of 1 million 100 thousand barrels per day in global oil demand. Highlighting that the latest delivery data fell short of expectations in a macroeconomic outlook characterized by unusual uncertainty, the IEA lowered its annual basis demand growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day due to weakness in emerging markets. The report predicts that about 60% of the expected increase in demand this year will come from Asia, with China leading the way, especially in providing the largest contribution to the growth of petrochemical raw materials. It is forecasted that the demand will increase by approximately 1 million 84 thousand barrels per day in non-OECD countries, reaching around 58 million 290 thousand barrels, while in OECD countries, it is estimated to decrease by 53 thousand barrels per day, falling to approximately 45 million 620 thousand barrels.