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How dangerous could the Chernobyl attack be? Is radioactive leakage imminent?

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, had its fourth reactor targeted in an attack. As Russia and Ukraine blame each other for the attack, nuclear concerns have escalated. The reactor hit is the same one that exploded on April 26, 1986, spreading radioactive fallout over a large part of Europe. So how will this latest attack affect Chernobyl? What dangers is the world facing? Ukraine’s “nuclear ghosts” have resurfaced following the attack on Chernobyl yesterday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday that a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle carrying a warhead struck the protective outer shell of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
Russia denied the attack and accused Ukraine of staging a false flag operation.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the attack did not breach the inner containment shell of the plant nor increase radiation levels.
The incident coincides with the Munich Security Conference where world leaders have been meeting in search of ways to end the nearly three-year-long war, making the timing sensitive.
Both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of undermining U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to mediate a peace deal.
IAEA Chief Rafael Mariano Grossi highlighted the serious concerns raised by the incident and emphasized the ongoing war poses persistent risks to nuclear safety.
Grossi stated, “There is no place for complacency, and the IAEA remains on high alert. Once again, I call for maximum military restraint around Ukraine’s nuclear facilities.”
President Zelensky of Ukraine stated that a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle struck the protective shell covering the remnants of the Chernobyl’s fourth reactor. This is the same reactor that exploded on April 26, 1986, spreading radioactive fallout over a large part of Europe.
The structure, built in 2019 for 2 billion euros, surrounds the original concrete shelter built over the remains of the exploded reactor.
The outer shell, made of metal and designed to prevent any radioactive release from the exploded reactor, aims to protect the reactor from all external threats.
Experts reported that the unmanned aerial vehicle did not threaten the integrity of the original concrete shelter, which can withstand much heavier impacts.
The other three nuclear reactors at Chernobyl were shut down long ago, but the plant still awaits the removal of used fuel and contaminated equipment.
Parts of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, and seized by Russia, have been hit multiple times by unmanned aerial vehicles from both Russia and Ukraine, but none posed radioactive threats.
Nevertheless, a series of attacks earlier this week led to the cancellation of a planned rotation of observers at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
The fear of Russian troops occupying Chernobyl in the early weeks of the war has raised concerns over potential damage that could trigger a radioactive accident.
Since Russia’s withdrawal in late March 2022, Ukraine has taken steps to enhance security by deploying additional protection, including anti-drone systems and anti-tank barriers to the demilitarized zone.Years of ongoing conflict have led to multiple power outages at critical cooling systems in Chernobyl and Ukraine’s active four nuclear power plants, raising concerns of overheating used nuclear fuel.
Outages often follow bombings of nearby power lines or unmanned aerial drone attacks, disrupting the supply.
Nuclear security experts told the Associated Press that fuel rods, once used to generate energy, continue to emit heat from radioactive decay for thousands of years.
Therefore, the fuel rods are placed in cooling pools and cooled by heat exchange pumps powered by both water and electricity.
The Swedish Radiation Safety Authority and others believe that a power outage at Chernobyl would not lead to a significant radiation incident lasting at least a few weeks.
This is due to the deep storage pools for fuel and the long time it takes for the water inside to boil even if the cooling pumps were to fail.
However, the lack of electricity would weaken the IAEA’s radiation monitoring systems installed to enhance safety.
While experts suggest the possibility of triggering a major radioactive release from a drone strike or missile attack without giving officials time to act is low, power cuts during a war or intentional targeting of nuclear plants can still lead to serious panic and undermine peace efforts.

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