Europe is in turmoil due to the Trump-Putin rapprochement. Some Western leaders are making statements about sending troops to Ukraine. Others are hesitant about directly engaging in the Russia-Ukraine War. So, is it possible to establish the European Army, which has recently been under discussion? Is Europe ready for this? Even though there seems to be a distant possibility of ending the war in Ukraine, the telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin last week sparked concerns in Europe.
The meeting between Russia and the US in Saudi Arabia only worsened the situation, leading European leaders to hold an emergency meeting in Paris.
The Guardian newspaper evaluated the crisis in Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine War.
Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, argues that there are various levels of military power that could be deployed following a ceasefire in Ukraine.
One of these levels is a large land deterrent force that could theoretically engage if Russia re-invades, possibly encompassing the 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky desires. However, with the refusal of the US to participate, personnel constraints do not necessarily mean Europe can provide such a number, and Savill believes a more credible alternative would be a smaller force tens of thousands strong, alongside European brigades at some sections of the front line.
This would be a more limited assistance, but in case of Russia’s renewed aggression against Ukraine, it could mean that European countries would also be dragged into the conflict.
A more limited model would be a “large training force,” which could be a deterrent as European troops would be stationed in Ukraine, able to fight and provide support in a military crisis.
However, this would only be limited assistance to Ukraine, facing at least 600,000 Russian troops across an active front line of over 900 square kilometers.
Military expert Ben Barry at the International Institute for Strategic Studies mentions the need for “air and naval elements” for any future support to Ukraine. It is highly unlikely for any European force deployed to Ukraine to have a peacekeeping mission.
Such missions are organized by the United Nations and involve patrolling both sides of a contact line equally.
Regardless of the size of the force, it is most likely to be under some form of European command.
Last Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that such units would not be under the NATO security guarantee, meaning that countries involved would have to fend for themselves in case of a new conflict with Russia. Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, at least partially aimed at preventing its smaller neighbor from joining the West, including NATO.
Its general goals, including the desire to demilitarize Ukraine, have not changed, and it is likely to oppose the presence of European forces in the country.
The Kremlin wants European countries to stay out of negotiations with the US.
If a European force were to be deployed in Ukraine, it could be exposed to low-level provocative attacks designed to test if they are willing to stay in the country. France is the most eager country to send military units to Ukraine, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also stating his willingness to deploy his forces if necessary.
Sweden also mentioned the possibility of its troops participating.
However, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, who will go to the polls this weekend, said that such discussions were premature given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of US-Russia talks.
On the other hand, heavily rearming Poland refused to send troops to its neighbor, dealing a blow to the nascent multinational effort. While US politicians rejected sending ground forces, they have yet to reject providing air support. Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be significant assistance to Kiev, but the White House seems to have lost interest in Ukraine.
Therefore, it is unclear whether it even considers taking this step.
A more likely scenario is that European countries will have to provide full security guarantees to Ukraine, raising the question of how prepared Europe is to go this far.
While the UK and France have nuclear weapons, it is unlikely for them to give up these weapons to defend Ukraine, especially considering Russia’s larger nuclear arsenal. Russia, which suffered heavy losses in Ukraine and struggled to gain territory after 2022, may not want to be drawn into another open conflict.
However, with the US commitment to non-intervention, the Kremlin may see Western forces in Ukraine as a softer target compared to those under the NATO umbrella elsewhere in Europe.