Low Volatility in Bitcoin Could Signal Major Market Moves

Following a significant hack incident targeting the Bybit exchange, Bitcoin is experiencing calm waters. During this period of decreasing volatility, Bitcoin investors are preparing for more purchases, with low volatility considered an indicator of major market movements. These developments become even more noticeable due to MicroStrategy’s plans to increase its Bitcoin investments.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices took a steady course following the sudden volatility that occurred after a record hack incident last week. Although the attack on the Bybit cryptocurrency exchange created a brief fluctuation in the markets, price movements began to stabilize as the attention of Bitcoin investors shifted elsewhere.
Particularly, a calm atmosphere prevailed throughout the weekend for the BTC/USD pair.
Popular investor Daan Crypto Trades summarized this situation on the X platform as follows:
“As the price is increasingly constrained, volatility is trending downwards. Even during yesterday’s drama, the price closed in the same price range as it has been for the past two weeks.” Additionally, he noted that the decline in open interest rates on exchanges since February 9 generally signals a market reset, with lower open interest and higher prices.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s BTC investment strategy is drawing attention. The company’s CEO, Michael Saylor, shared a graph showcasing the company’s existing Bitcoin assets. Although this sharing does not provide definite information about future purchases, it is seen as a strong indication of the company’s intention to acquire more Bitcoin. Saylor mentioned that this graph does not reflect the purchases made in the previous week, hinting that investors should closely monitor future developments regarding additional purchases.
As speculation around MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin investments grows, potential impacts on the price of BTC are also being discussed.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has rarely dropped to historically low levels. On February 21, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s one-week realized volatility had declined to 23.42%, approaching historical lows.
Only a few times in the last four years have such low levels been observed; for instance, it fell to 22.88% in October 2024 and 21.35% in November 2023.
This low volatility could herald major market movements. Glassnode pointed out that the all-time lows in Bitcoin options’ implied volatility have historically resulted in significant volatility increases. However, longer-term volatility rates, such as over 3-month and 6-month periods, continue to remain high; 3-month volatility is at 53.1%, while 6-month is at 56.25%.
Bitcoin investors and market analysts believe that significant market movements are imminent after this period of contracting volatility.
MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin purchases could mean that this movement could accelerate. The company’s statements and investment strategies offer important clues about how the current state of the Bitcoin market might evolve in the future.