NASA’s planetary defense team reported that the probability of the 2024 YR4 asteroid colliding with Earth, which had risen to 3.1%, has now decreased to 0.28%. On the other hand, the chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon was recorded at 1%.

NASA astronomers continue to track the orbit of the 2024 YR4 asteroid. Initial calculations showed a 1.3% chance of collision with Earth. However, as new data came in, this rate temporarily rose to 3.1%.

INCREASED CHANCE OF COLLIDING WITH THE MOON Following the recent analyses, the probability of the 2024 YR4 asteroid colliding with Earth significantly decreased to 0.28%.

However, new calculations show a 1% chance of impact with the Moon. WHAT IS AN ASTEROID?

Asteroids are rocky celestial bodies left over from the formation of the Solar System approximately 4.6 billion years ago. Their sizes can range from small gravel stones to massive objects hundreds of kilometers wide. Most asteroids are located in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, but some move on orbits closer to Earth. Occasionally, they can follow a path that poses a threat to Earth. Therefore, astronomers and space agencies closely monitor these objects and develop possible deflection techniques to prevent collisions.

2024 YR4 AND CONCERNS IT RAISED

2024 YR4 became one of the asteroids that caught international media attention in recent weeks. It is a Near-Earth Object (NEO) discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. Initially estimated to have a 1.3% chance of collision with Earth in 2032, it has since become one of the most risky asteroids recorded. Subsequent observations have further increased this risk.

ATLAS SYSTEM

Astronomers use systems like ATLAS to identify Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that could pose a potential threat to Earth. Developed by the University of Hawaii and funded by NASA, ATLAS is a network of telescopes deployed worldwide used to continuously scan the sky. The primary goal of ATLAS is to detect asteroids before a potential impact, issue timely warnings, and develop collision prevention strategies. Since its establishment, ATLAS has successfully discovered thousands of asteroids, including those that are hazardous.