It is anticipated that the Iraq-Turkey pipeline will be put back into operation after a hiatus of around 2 years. Initially, a daily export target of 185,000 barrels of oil through the Ceyhan Port is aimed for. Following the announcement by Iraqi Petroleum Minister Hayyan Abdulgani through the Iraq Petroleum Marketing Company (SOMO) that oil exports will resume via the Ceyhan Port, a step closer to the reactivation of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline has been taken. Abdulgani, in his statement on February 28, announced that oil exports via Ceyhan Port would commence through SOMO. It was mentioned that exports starting at 185,000 barrels per day would gradually increase until reaching the capacity projected in the federal budget. Therefore, discussions have emerged about the resumption of oil flow halted on March 25, 2023, due to disagreement between Baghdad and Erbil administrations, approximately 2 years later. The Iraqi Parliament, on February 2, approved amendments to the budget law for the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq (KRG), subsidizing the production costs of international oil companies operating in the region, setting the transportation cost of oil produced in the region at $16 per barrel. This step was considered a critical development for the restart of oil exports to Turkey. Subsequently, Iraqi Petroleum Minister Abdulgani announced on February 4 that KRG oil would be handed over to SOMO for export through the Ceyhan Port, and the necessary procedures were being carried out with Turkey for it. On February 17, Abdulgani also stated that exports would resume within a week. On the same day, KRG Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Kemal Muhammed mentioned that the process could be completed by March. The Iraqi Petroleum Ministry announced on February 22 that the procedures for restarting exports had been completed, requesting KRG officials to transfer the produced oil to SOMO for export through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and Ceyhan Port. Subsequently, the KRG government announced on February 23 that an agreement had been reached with Iraq to restart oil exports, with both parties establishing a joint technical team to inspect the pipeline. On February 25, Iraqi Petroleum Minister Abdulgani stated that the pipeline was ready for export and expected shipments to begin within two days. Abdulgani noted that the budget law allocated for daily Kurdistan oil exports through Ceyhan was between 300,000 to 325,000 barrels, mentioning that a portion would be used for domestic consumption, with the rest intended for export. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammed Shia al-Sudani agreed on February 26 in a phone call to “work quickly” to reopen the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. KRG President Nechirvan Barzani said in a statement on February 26 that they expected the region’s oil to be exported through Ceyhan Port soon, indicating that technical issues such as companies’ financing were the only obstacles ahead. Barzani highlighted that the U.S. played a supportive and encouraging role in the process, emphasizing the central partnership of the U.S. with Iraq and the KRG. The suspension of oil exports from Iraq to Turkey due to disagreements between Baghdad and Erbil has caused an estimated loss of about $20 billion in the region. In August 2023, KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani announced from the X platform that they had agreed with Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar on the importance of resuming oil exports through Ceyhan. Bayraktar stated in April 2024 that the issues in the Iraq-Turkey pipeline were not Turkey’s responsibility, stressing that the line was operational as of October 4, 2023, but disputes between Erbil and Baghdad had negatively impacted the process. When the flow of oil to Turkey resumes, it is expected to contribute to the improvement of Ankara-Baghdad relations. Kate Dourian, Visiting Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, expressed that foreign companies operating in the KRG region might not wish to hand over their oil to SOMO. Dourian emphasized the need to consider multiple variables, stating that “This situation implies that Baghdad’s only option would be to export its own oil from the Khurmala field, operated by Kirkuk and Kar Group, within that region. On the other hand, the technical condition of the pipeline, out of operation for approximately 2 years, remains another uncertainty.” Regarding the resumption of exports, Dourian suggested that global supply balances would not be heavily affected, commenting, “I believe the step to restart oil exports is a response to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. In fact, the pressure is not directly from Trump but from the Trump administration. Previously, the Washington administration had stated that Iraq must continue its oil exports from the northern region; otherwise, the country would face U.S. sanctions as part of its ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran. On the other hand, I do not think that global supply balances will be heavily affected when exports resume because Iraq will have to reduce its production in the southern fields under federal control to comply with the OPEC+ quota.”