President Donald Trump has halted military aid to Ukraine, raising concerns about how long Ukrainian forces can sustain without American assistance. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has heavily relied on American weapons and could stumble against Russia anytime. While some top Ukrainian officials are trying to fill the European void, they warn that the army will struggle if American support does not return.

Following a dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, President Trump reportedly suspended military aid to Ukraine temporarily. The Trump administration not only halted military assistance but also intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Recent worries suggest that Ukraine could lose access to the Starlink satellite internet system owned by Trump’s close ally, Elon Musk, facilitating military communication.

UKRAINIAN STUMBLING IS A MATTER OF MOMENTS It might be a matter of moments for Ukrainian forces to stumble against Russia without billions of dollars worth of American-made weapons. However, the duration of this collapse will depend on how quickly European countries can compensate for artillery, missile, and air defense systems suspended by the Trump administration.

US WAS TO PROVIDE $11 BILLION IN WEAPONS This year, the US had pledged to deliver up to $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine. According to a recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, some of this would come from Pentagon stocks, while the rest would be ordered through new defense contracts. Europe’s unwavering promises to support Ukraine have intensified as the Trump administration started retracting, but it is nearly impossible for this support to rapidly fill the weapons gap.

“EUROPE CANNOT REPLACE AMERICAN AID”

European defense industries have gained momentum to quickly send weapons to Ukraine, but countries also need to protect their own armament stocks. Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Major General Ihor Romanenko, stated, “Europe cannot undoubtedly replace American aid.”

“ARMY WILL COLLAPSE IN FOUR MONTHS” Ukraine manufactures drones and builds domestic artillery systems. The country plans to allocate 26% of its budget to defense this year. However, some top Ukrainian officials warn that the army will be in dire straits if American support is not reinstated. According to experts, Ukrainian forces will begin collapsing within a four-month timeframe as they will lack the sufficient ammunition and equipment to recover. WHY CAN’T EUROPE FILL THE VOID? Throughout the three-year conflict, almost half of the $136 billion in military aid provided to Ukraine was from the US. As Ukraine and European defense industries have accelerated production, the American share has decreased over time. Currently, only about 20% of the military equipment supplied to Ukraine comes from the US, but this 20% comprises the most deadly and crucial shipments. HAS UKRAINE FALLEN APART? Military analysts predict that without US military aid, Kiev may be forced to accept an unfavorable ceasefire agreement with Russia. This could mean abandoning a fifth of their territory and giving up on their desire to join NATO.