While the SEC’s uncertain stance on XRP ETFs persists, investors in the market are awaiting a new decision. The SEC, which postponed applications from major asset management companies like Grayscale and Bitwise, has extended the process until at least May. Franklin Templeton, on the other hand, submitted a new XRP ETF application, indicating the continued institutional interest. Analysts suggest that approval of XRP ETFs could result in billions of dollars entering the market, but there is no clear forecast on how the process will proceed.

Approvals for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum took many years. However, significant changes at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are leading to a similar process for ETFs focusing on smaller cryptocurrencies like XRP. The SEC announced delays in making a decision on XRP-based ETFs proposed by major asset management firms such as Grayscale and Bitwise. This postponement is seen as a significant development for XRP investors, indicating that the process will be extended at least until the end of May. As a result, the possibility of ETFs that allow investors to be exposed to XRP’s price indirectly without directly owning it being launched in the near future has been eliminated.

This regulatory development, particularly in terms of increasing institutional investor interest, has resonated strongly in the market. Currently, the total net assets of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have reached $99 billion. Opening a similar path for XRP ETFs could boost interest in this altcoin. However, the uncertainty remains about how much longer the process will drag on.

XRP ETF Approval Likelihood
One of the biggest concerns for XRP investors is whether the SEC will continuously postpone these applications. According to data from the crypto-backed prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of XRP ETF approval by July 31 is 35%. However, this probability is expected to rise to 72% by the end of the year.

Despite changes at the SEC with Trump taking office, the process is seen to progress slowly. Paul Atkins, who succeeded former SEC chair Gary Gensler, has not yet been officially endorsed by Congress. This lowers the chances of XRP ETF applications, along with other alternative crypto ETFs like Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, being approved before Atkins assumes office.

While the inauguration process for SEC chairs has generally been completed by March in the past, the latest Semaphore report indicates that the White House has yet to complete the necessary paperwork, hinting at a possible further extension of the XRP ETF process.

New XRP ETF Application from Franklin Templeton
Despite the SEC’s decision to delay current applications, major investment firms continue to show interest in XRP ETFs. Most recently, Franklin Templeton, with total assets under management amounting to $1.68 trillion, filed a new ETF application named “The Franklin XRP Trust.”

The application documents indicate that the fund’s assets will largely consist of XRP and aim to track its price performance. Franklin Templeton previously applied for and received approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, these funds did not attract as much attention among investors as anticipated.

Among the 12 Bitcoin ETFs operating in the U.S., BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust holds a 50.85% market share, ranking first, while Fidelity’s ETF comes second with 17.5%. Franklin Templeton’s Bitcoin ETF only holds a 0.46% market share. A similar situation exists among Ethereum ETFs, with BlackRock leading with a 35% share, and Franklin Templeton’s Ethereum ETF trailing with a 0.33% market share.

These statistics raise questions about whether Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF will generate significant demand upon its launch. Analysts note that institutional interest in altcoins receiving ETF treatment is typically limited. However, allowing XRP to be included in exchange-traded funds could boost interest in this digital asset.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, if XRP ETFs are approved, the fund’s entry into the market could reach $8 billion in the first 12 months. Additionally, speculations about the possibility of including XRP in ETFs tracking multiple cryptocurrencies are also under consideration.

Next Steps for XRP ETFs
The future of the XRP ETF process will be shaped by the SEC’s new leadership and market dynamics. The most crucial question for XRP investors is when the SEC will clarify the current uncertainty. While the process is expected to pick up speed with Paul Atkins taking office, the approval process involving the White House and Congress will be a key factor in determining the timeline.

While no significant developments regarding XRP ETFs are anticipated in the near future, the involvement of major players like Franklin Templeton could boost institutional interest in XRP in the long run. However, it should not be forgotten that assets outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen limited investor interest in the ETF market. How the SEC will proceed in the coming months and establish a regulatory framework for XRP ETFs will be one of the most influential factors in guiding investor direction in the market.