The price movements and key indicators of Bitcoin are signaling whether the market is in a deep value zone or on the verge of a new bear market. An analysis published by CryptoQuant on March 11 emphasizes that Bitcoin has reached one of the lowest levels in the current cycle. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has dropped to levels indicating either a sharp price correction or the beginning of a long-term bearish trend in previous cycles.
Another important metric, the MVRV Ratio Z-score, has also fallen below its 365-day moving average. This shows that Bitcoin’s previous upward momentum is weakening and investor sentiment is deteriorating. There is also a sharp decline in demand. Visible demand for Bitcoin has dropped by 103,000 BTC in the past week, marking the largest demand contraction seen since July 2024.
The market’s fragility is further deepened by changes in Bitcoin whales and ETF movements. Traditionally, significant investors determining the market direction are showing a marked slowdown in Bitcoin purchases. Particularly, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net sellers this year. This increases downward pressure on prices. Bitcoin has lost 22% in value with the current correction. Although such corrections have been seen in past bull markets, the current valuation indicators paint a different picture. CryptoQuant analysts suggest that rather than an ordinary price pullback, this could be a deep restructuring process indicating the market’s structural weakness.
Policies by TRUMP shake the crypto markets as well. Bitcoin’s decline was triggered not only by technical indicators but also by macroeconomic developments. New announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, March 12 regarding trade policies reduced investor risk appetite and led to sharp market fluctuations. Referring to new tariffs against major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China, Trump’s administration increased uncertainty in the global markets. This development triggered widespread selling in risky assets including Bitcoin, leading to a 6% drop in the overall crypto market in one day.
If the current downward trend continues, Bitcoin is expected to test support at $81,000. However, if this level breaks downward, there is a possibility of a further decline to around $63,000, the next major support level. At 8:45 AM Turkey time, BTC is trading at $81,851 with a 1.3% decrease. Historically, the $63,000 level has been one of the critical thresholds where Bitcoin price has held during strong corrections. CryptoQuant analysts believe that this level will play a key role in determining the market’s long-term trend.