The first phase of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel ended yesterday. However, there have been no clear developments regarding the second phase yet. Hamas reported that there have been no discussions with them about the second phase of the ceasefire. So, what scenarios are being considered after the first phase? What factors will influence these scenarios?

According to the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel, negotiations for the second phase were supposed to begin on February 3, but without starting negotiations, the first phase of the agreement ended.

The absence of negotiations for the second phase opens the door to several possible scenarios, such as the continuation of the current phase due to Israel’s ongoing aggression in the Gaza Strip, an increase in Israeli pressure, and reaching a comprehensive agreement. Israel Wants to Extend the First Phase Israel intends to extend the first phase of the prisoner exchange agreement to release as many Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip as possible without offering any reciprocity. Hamas rejects this and demands Israel to adhere to the terms of the ceasefire agreement, calling for the immediate start of negotiations for the second phase, which includes Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a complete cessation of attacks. Hamas insists on starting negotiations for the second phase and Israel’s withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, which has caused no progress in the talks. During the Cairo talks, Hamas rejected the formula to extend the 42-day first phase of the ceasefire set to end today in exchange for continuing to release Israeli captives in its possession while allowing the continuation of aid flow to Gaza and the release of some Palestinian captives.

“HAMAS IS READY FOR THIS”

Hamas spokesman Hazim Kasim indicated the efforts of mediators for Israel to stick to the second phase, emphasizing that Hamas is persistently committed to the agreement at every stage. Kasim stated that Hamas is prepared to commence negotiations for the second phase and is ready for it on a technical, professional, and political level. Regarding Israel’s desire to extend the first phase, Kasim mentioned that Tel Aviv wants to retrieve its captives from Gaza without promising to stop the war and withdraw from the Gaza Strip, contrary to what the agreement proposes, they rejected. SCENARIOS AFTER THE FIRST PHASE Palestinian analyst and writer Ibrahim el-Medhun claimed that there are four possible scenarios for the period following the first phase of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. He pointed out that the first scenario, comprehensive military action, escalation, and destruction with direct involvement by the US, was unlikely to happen due to existing regional and international balances, despite radical factions within the Israeli government. The second scenario focuses on maintaining the current situation without new measures, such as a prisoner exchange, withdrawal from Gaza, lifting the blockade, or other demands from Hamas. Medhun stated that this scenario is challenging to achieve since Hamas rejected Israel’s request for an unconditional prisoner exchange. He highlighted that this scenario requires Israel to control aid access without engaging in a comprehensive war, emphasizing a negotiation-based approach with some escalation of assassinations. The third and most probable scenario involves the continuation of the current process under increased Israeli pressure. Medhun stated, “Israel will use aid as a pressure tool, control the management and distribution of aid, send aircraft for airstrikes, potentially conduct some limited ground attacks, and aim to maintain a state of continuous tension without declaring comprehensive war.” Medhun mentioned a fourth scenario featuring a comprehensive and rapid agreement to end the conflict fundamentally, including complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, lifting the blockade, and the release of all prisoners from both sides. FACTORS AT PLAY Medhun claimed several factors would influence the future of the agreement, indicating the Israeli factor as the main one, noting that extreme factions within Israel continued to escalate, complicating the chance for comprehensive political solutions. He highlighted the Palestinian factor, stating that Hamas and the resistance had demonstrated their discipline and readiness to handle any situation. Hamas is striving for tranquility and is predisposed to react firmly during escalations. Another factor is the stance of the United States, which would require reevaluating the terms of any future intervention, especially the exclusion of Hamas from the political scene. Medhun emphasized the vital role of Egypt in maintaining regional peace at a time when Arab countries focus on alleviating Palestinian suffering in Gaza and preventing the conflict from spreading. A 15-Month Ceasefire After over 15 months of warfare in Gaza, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel came into effect on January 19. Hamas released 25 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails and returned the lifeless bodies of 8 hostages to Israel. The ceasefire’s second stage, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, was expected to begin today.