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When Will the Central Bank Lower Interest Rates? Updated Predictions

The Central Bank raised its policy rate by 350 basis points to 46 percent. Experts noted that the decision held symbolic importance for the markets. Foreign institutions, on the other hand, revised their interest rate predictions. Following the Central Bank’s interest rate decision, expectations were also updated. Yesterday, the CBRT raised the policy rate to 46 percent, at which it funds the market, and the overnight borrowing rate to 49 percent. This marked the first increase in 13 months, putting a halt to the interest rate reduction cycle after three meetings. Experts emphasizing the symbolic importance of the interest rate decision for the markets predicted that in case of normalization and relaxation, the policy rate would first be returned to its normal range rather than being lowered. It was pointed out that this decision would enable strong messages to be delivered by the Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and the Central Bank management at the upcoming IMF Spring Meetings next week. It was emphasized that inflation, demand for foreign exchange, and global developments would be determinant factors in the interest rate decision in the coming period. INTEREST RATE PREDICTIONS FROM MAJOR BANKS Goldman Sachs expressed that if no new shock occurs in the markets, interest rate cuts are expected to resume in July. The year-end policy rate forecast was raised from 28.5 percent to 33 percent. Morgan Stanley announced that it expected a resumption of interest rate cuts in July. INTEREST RATE MEETING IN JUNE Analysts stated that an important maneuvering space was created for the bank until the next meeting. According to the Central Bank’s calendar, the next meeting will be held on June 19th.

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