Market participants’ year-end inflation expectation decreased from 28.30% to 28.04%. The 12-month inflation expectation also dropped from 25.26% to 24.55%.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released the “Market Participants Survey” data for the March 2025 period.

CPI EXPECTATION DECREASED

Market participants’ current year-end consumer price index (CPI) expectation was 28.30% in the previous survey period, while it was 28.04% in this survey period.

The 12-month CPI expectation was 25.26% in the previous survey period, but it decreased to 24.55% in this survey period. The 24-month CPI expectation also decreased from 17.26% to 17.06%.

EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATION FELL

Participants’ current year-end dollar/TL expectation was 42.89 TL in the previous survey period, but it was 42.79 TL in this survey period. The 12-month exchange rate expectation was 43.96 TL in the previous survey period, and it realized as 44.42 TL in this survey period. The CBRT’s policy rate expectation for the current month end was 42.50% in this survey period.

GROWTH EXPECTATION INCREASED

Participants’ 2025 growth expectation was 3% in the previous survey period, but it realized as 3.1% in this survey period. The 2026 growth expectation was 3.9% in the previous survey period, but it was 4% in this survey period.